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黑带试题,谢谢大神指教!

21) 某批次产品有不良率4%。请用泊松分布计算,当随机抽样50 件时,其结果不能反映该批产品的真实质量情况的概率? B
A. 0.27 
B. 0.73 
C. 0.82 
D. 0.67 
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p = 4%, n = 50
 
lamda = p*n = 2
 
P(X=0) = poisson(x, lamda, 0) = 13.5%
P(X=1) = poisson(x, lamda, 0) = 27.1%, P(process) = 72.9%
P(X=2) = poisson(x, lamda, 0) = 27.1%, P(process) = 72.9%
P(X=3) = poisson(x, lamda, 0) = 18.0%, P(process) = 82.0%
P(X=4) = poisson(x, lamda, 0) =   9.0%, P(process) = 91.0%
 
When X=1 and X=2, the result is same, confuse the conclusion.

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