转：China's Top 10 Economic Challenges & the High-Tech Implication 中国经济和电 ...

原文：China's Top 10 Economic Challenges & the High-Tech ImplicationsBolaji OjoWe are not all racing to learn Mandarin yet, but most, if not all, working-age adults in the Western world and many developing nations know enough to keep an eye on news about and from China. For executives in all industry segments, China is the elephant in the room. It must be factored into any decisions about the future of their enterprise.If any segment of the global economy can afford to ignore China's gargantuan role, it's not electronics. Over the last two decades, the industry has steadily and tightly yoked itself to the Asian nation. After transferring a majority of manufacturing operations and huge swathes of the supply chain to China, the industry faces the stark reality that it can no more do without China than the country itself could disengage from world markets and revert to a closed socialist economy.Events in China will have a major impact on all the global economic segments that have become heavily dependent on the nation. This is obviously the case for the electronics industry. Most of its leading companies, if not all, have huge operations in China and are exposed to events there. Furthermore, the entire industry supply chain (not just the manufacturing end, as is commonly assumed) has significant exposure in China. As China goes, so does the industry.In the last five years alone, China has set numerous records in high-tech marketshare. It has become the world's biggest consumer of semiconductor products, mobile phones, PCs, flat-screen TVs, solar panels, and a wide range of so-called white goods, including refrigerators and cooking ranges. By the way, it is just getting warmed up. As its middle class expands over the next decade (barring any geopolitical disruptions), China will overtake the Western world and become the leading market for medical devices and a range of other goods. Its aging population guarantees this.IHS iSuppli does a great job of tracking how China is wending its way through the electronics supply chain. It reports that Chinese OEMs will ship 350 million smartphones next year. This is in addition to the country's dominance of the PC, networking/communications gear, and other high-tech equipment sectors."China's PC shipment growth is exceptional, especially when compared to the tepid growth anticipated this year in PC shipments for the rest of the world," Elaine Zhi, an analyst for China electronics research at IHS, said in a press release in July. "Shipments to commercial enterprises are leading the consumer segment in both the desktop and notebook segments by several million units in 2012."However, industry observers and economists have identified major economic challenges for China that I believe we should all keep on our radars. Entrepreneurs and executives are largely aware of many of these challenges, but they need to move beyond awareness and develop a vibrant and flexible risk mitigation program. I compiled a list of the potential challenges to China's economic growth from different sources:1. How will it handle the transition to a world-class economy while dealing with slowing Western demand?2. Should China float its currency?3. How will political events and a leadership struggle affect the economy?4. Can China control inflation?5. How will it find the right workers and deal with rising wages?6. Can it improve labor conditions and avoid the ire of international consumers?7. How can it sustain local demand created by its middle class/aging population?8. Can it sustain the electronics supply chain while dealing with urbanization (manufacturing locations and the interior of China)?9. How accurate is its economic data?10. Will China completely agree to international intellectual property protection, and how will its decision impact its economic development and global alliances?In a followup to this blog, I will provide more details and identify how I believe they can pose problems for electronics manufacturers. The list is not exhaustive, and I would welcome additions. Your comments will further the discussion.译文：中国经济和电子产业当前面临的10大挑战虽然目前还不到所有人都竞相学习中文的时候，但西方国家和许多发展中国家大多数正值工作年纪的人都知道必须密切注意有关以及来自中国的消息。尤其是对于各产业领域的高层主管而言，中国的地位不容忽视，有关企业的未来决定都必须将中国纳入考虑。全球经济中的任何领域都无法忽视中国的重要性，特别是电子产业。过去二十年来，电子产业不断稳定且紧密地与这个亚洲国家连结在一起。随着大部份的制造业务以及供应链转移至中国后，电子产业开始面临一个严酷的现实──它再也脱离不了与中国的关系了！在中国所发生的任何事件都对全球经济领域产生影响，特别是那些重度依赖中国的产业领域。这在电子产业的情况尤其明显。大部份的主导企业都在中国建立了庞大的 业务，也面对当地发生的各种事件。此外，整个电子产业供应链(不只是制造业)中国都有一定程度的涉入。随着中国快速成长，电子产业也持续进展。仅在过去五年，中国在高科技市占率方面就已经写下了多项纪录。在半导体产品、手机、PC、平面电视、太阳能板以及所谓的“白色家电”方面，中国已经成为世界上最大的消费市场了。此外，随着中国的中产阶级在未来十年持续扩增，中国将超越西方世界，成为医疗设备以及其它产品领域的主要市场。由中国老龄化的人口即可看出这一趋势。IHS iSuppli公司探讨中国如何透过电子产业供应链走出自己的路。在该公司的报告中提到，除了在PC、网络/通讯设备以及其它高科技设备领域占主导位以外，中国OEM明年还将推出3.5亿支智能手机。IHS中国电子产品研究分析师 Elaine Zhi指出，“中国PC出货量成长迅速，特别是当我们比较世界上其它地区预期今年将出现缓和的成长态势；2012年台式计算机与笔记本计算机的企业市场出货量将会比消费市场更高几百万台。”然而，业界观察人士和经济学家也指出中国正面临重大经济挑战。企业家和管理人员正注意到这些挑战，但他们必须超越至下一个层次，积极发展出一套充满活力与弹性化的危机缓解计划。我从几处不同的资料来源整理出一系列在迈向经济成长之路中国可能面临的潜在挑战：●　　在顺利过渡成为一个世界级经济体的同时，中国如何同时因应西方需求减缓的问题？●　　中国应该让人民币成为自由浮动汇率的货币吗？●　　政治事件将如何影响经济？●　　中国能控制通货膨胀吗？●　　如何找到合适的工人以及有效处理工资上涨和的问题？●　　中国可能改善劳工环境，避免全球消费者的愤怒吗？●　　如何透过中产阶级与老龄化人口持续创造需求？●　　如何维持电子产品供应链，同时处理城市化(生产基地以及中国内地)的问题？●　　所统计的经济数据准确度如何？● 中国将完全认同国际IP保护吗？中国的决定如何影响中国本身与全球的经济发展？除此之外，中国经济成长还面临着哪些挑战？欢迎您的补充，您的意见将有助于更多讨论。